Categoría: Bolts Up Daily

He was extremely impressive on his debut at Fontwell last month, travelling strongly and powering clear on the run-in without breaking sweat. On that evidence, he could well be above average, in which case he should be capable of giving away the weight. The Championship race of the day was remarkably won by another mare making it 2-0 to the girls so far. She really Bolts Up Daily relished the jumping test, and travelled so well behind the leading bunch throughout. Her jumping was immaculate and she managed to avoid all of the hustle and bustle that was happening after the last to catch Chacun pour soi up the home straight. Following this Monkfish stepped up and won the Brown Advisory Chase without needing to be at his best to do so.

Honeysuckle – Mares’ Hurdle – 11/8 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)

The average winning SP since 2012 has been 27/1, and there have been nine winners priced 20/1 or bigger since the race’s inception in 2005; so the market doesn’t have a clue who wins either! The suggestion, then, is to ignore anything shorter than 16/1 and try to make a case for two or three darts, win only, for small change. The win market is all about Constitution Hill, who better ratings judges are suggesting is the best we’ve seen in a very, very long time. If that’s right, he’s a fair enough price for those who like playing big at short.

Horse racing tips: Catterick, Chepstow and Bangor – Tuesday October 29

Fast, frantic, furious, frenetic, ferocious and other adjectives beginning with ‘f’. Note that neither Gaelic Warrior nor Milldam have raced in UK or Ireland to this point. Their French form suggests both will be waited with to varying degrees.

50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

Skybet are actually offering prices on winning margins of 2+ lengths (10/11), 4+ lengths (2/1), 6+ lengths (10/3), 8+ lengths (5/1) and 10+ lengths (7/1). February is upon us and, with it, the focus on the Cheltenham Festival becomes more intense. Regardless of the debate about the middle March showpiece overpowering the National Hunt calendar’s narrative, there is no denying it offers a rich range of options from an ante post perspective.

CHARITY BETS

The one who might still be a little on the fat side is Minella Indo. 20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle. His last chase sighting was when pulling up after only six fences in the Gold Cup a year ago. Connections are publicly pointing towards this gig but I wonder if he might go t’other way in a very open looking and winnable Stayers’ Hurdle section. A test as unique as the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes it something of a specialist’s race. Best Mate famously reeled off a hat-trick of wins early in the century and, since then, both Kauto Star and Al Boum Photo have doubled up.

30: Weatherbys Champion Bumper – Marlborough’s preview and tips

The number of runners in a race often has a bearing on the tempo at which the race is run; and that in turn has a notable influence over which horses in the field might be best suited. Again, we’re looking towards the extremes here, though, having said that, with the continued shrinkage of field sizes comes a problem for those one-paced galloping types. Good to soft has a similar, if slightly more consistent for prior winners of one to three on the same ground, profile. Good to firm shows a similar increase from going maidens to those with a single verdict on the same official turf, then a regressive profile for winners of two and three. Deviating the other way, to soft, we see a fairly consistent picture for winners of one to three previous races on soft turf.

Lingfield Tips

Clicking on the trainer’s name reveals today’s runner(s), and clicking the little up arrow to the left hand side displays inline the relevant past performances – here we can see that one of the pair won and the other was third. HERMES BOY chased home subsequent Cheltenham winner I Like To Move It when finishing 2nd at Worcester 5 weeks ago. It is also worth noting that he ran well on debut over this Course and Distance on his bumper debut last season and if he can build on his debut over timber, he should win this race that looks to lack any real depth.

• Draw and run style seem to be fairly well subsumed into market prices these days; at least into starting price market prices.
• Today, horse racing betting is a £4.6 billion per year industry.
• The winner that day was in receipt of a stone but faces those old foes off levels here.
• If we combine the clear favourite records of Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead, 39.1% of them won (54 wins from 138) for a profit of £27.25 (ROI +19.7%).
• By considering such expert tips and a variety of opinions, punters can navigate through the complexities of horse racing and increase their chances of winning.
• There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap, Richard Fahey has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins.
• EdG is a fair price, and he might be Gentleman’s problem if he doesn’t allow that one to dominate from the front.
• But he’s no bargain, especially if his jockey – presumably Rachael Blackmore though she has another option – allows others a head start.
• Connections probably have eyes on the Gold Cup 2022 after that Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners display.

Latest Tips

• The last ten years (from 2013 onwards) have seen Irish runners dominate these events more and more.
• Mick Fitzgerald knows the time of day at Nicky Henderson’s yard and describes Altior as a rocket who would win the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and probably the Champions League if they let him enter it.
• And, of course, that’s absolutely fine because – remember – the number one takeaway from these million words is, Choose Your Battles.
• This doesn’t just work on all-weather or on turning tracks, by the way.
• Plus we have Uttoxeter  who are subject to a third inspection.
• There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park.

Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record. The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4. My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc.

• Last year’s impressive winner Inspiral is a class act but it’s hard to have any confidence in her given she has blown the start on her last three runs.
• Like the favourite, she brings Festival-winning form to the party and her form string at this intermediate distance is 12.
• He has few miles on the clock and was much improved when second at Wolverhampton last time.
• With a longer-term record dating back to January 2021 of a similar level, he is undoubtedly a true expert to listen to when looking for value bets for each day’s racing.
• Paul Nicholls has a very good record in handicap hurdles, too, in contrast to his Grade 1 performance in recent seasons.
• It all started with a new superstar in the name of Bob Olinger, who absolutely bolted up in the Ballymore novices hurdle to become the first of the Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners.
• The second won next time and was rated 89 when taking on handicappers for the first time, the third – also trained by Joseph – has won a couple of minor hurdle races, and the fourth won a Leopardstown maiden next time.

Other Principal races at Ayr racecourse

Omniscient failed to justify 5-4 favouritism but made no mistake over a mile and a quarter at Yarmouth eight days ago, still looking rough hewn in thumping At Liberty by five and a half lengths. REBEL’S ROMANCE, who is unbeaten in three starts in Europe, rates much the best option. Another personal best came via a length-and-and-a-half margin from Live In The Dream in the Listed Scurry Stakes over the minimum trip at Sandown Park on the second Saturday in June. And Mitbaahy was unfortunate not to rack up the hat-trick over the same course and distance on the Coral-Eclipse undercard last time out.

Cheltenham Festival 2021: Trainer Form

• Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only – and therefore first choice – entry.
• Unlucky not to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham a couple seasons ago and trainer’s UK strike rate is very good.
• He’s three from three to date – a bumper, a novice at the Galway Festival, and the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in January.
• The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers.
• She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.
• Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
• Decent day of racing ahead with three Grade 2, one Grade 3 and a listed races from Newbury and Warwick this afternoon.
• The suggestion, then, is to ignore anything shorter than 16/1 and try to make a case for two or three darts, win only, for small change.
• Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over.

At least, that’s my reading of this vaguest of vaguenesses. Specifically, we’ll try to conjecture a) which horses will run in the 2022 Gold Cup, and b) how they might be expected to assemble themselves through the first mile – and at what sort of an overall speed. All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years. He does finish second unnervingly frequently – he’s allowed one to pass in five of his last six chases – but otherwise is a strong box-ticker for all that he’s no Prestbury Park previous. Fitting the historical profile more snugly is the Gordon Elliott inmate, Run Wild Fred, who represents Gigginstown and is ridden by Jamie Codd. Codd has piloted the winner in three of the last six renewals where amateur jockeys contested (professionals last year due to Covid), two of the three coming for Elliott.

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That’s a potential knock for the strong Willie Mullins-trained fancy, Stattler, who is unbeaten in two fencing contests. In 2013, Mullins won with the unbeaten-in-three Back In Focus, but more recently both 9/4 Ballyward (fell) and 10/11 Carefully Selected (unseated) have succumbed to their inexperience at the obstacles. Still, Stattler’s form credentials are robust and his stamina is assured if his leaping holds up at the expected quicker tempo on quicker turf. Pop back to that Aintree G1 and we find our other joint favourite. There was little between Jonbon and El Fabiolo in Liverpool and they may again be hard to separate. Willie’s contender has had two chasing starts, winning by 19L and 10L, the latter in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival.

When is the Breeders’ Cup? Del Mar dates, races and post times for 2024

If the ground dries out, it might be that connections of Honeysuckle decide to run over this two-and-a-half mile trip rather than the extended two of the Champion Hurdle. The hallmark of those runs, and indeed her run style generally, is being held together off the pace before cruising through to prevail comfortably. In so doing it is hard to peg the level of her form exactly, always leaving the impression there is more in the tank. Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins’ better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term. She beat the same mare, Minella Melody, by nearly two lengths in a Grade 2 in November and then by more than six lengths in a Grade 3 at the turn of the year.

He’s won his last four starts, all Grade 1’s, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L – and had won his previous start by 14L. His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry. Given he’s normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill’s profile whatsoever and he’s a very worthy odds-on favourite. The Supreme is sometimes won by a clear cut favourite – think Appreciate It or Douvan – but, more often than not, the waters are muddier and the multiple returned for finding the winner more appealing. This year falls into the latter bracket, and surely bookies all over the country will be desperately trying to ‘get’ Facile Vega.

Being late in the flat season, the race can be run on testing but it does usually drum up plenty of interest with good-sized fields. Once we’ve identified likely fast finishers in the field, we need to overlay the circumstances in which they recorded their fast finish on top of how we perceive today’s race will be run. If, on the other hand, there was no obvious pace horse – or a single front runner – we should probably be more interested in the 111% fast finisher, which has shown its ability to quicken takingly off a pedestrian pace.

There are so many different sites out there that can offer great odds, you just need to track them down. If you have interests in other areas of sports betting, you should definitely consider finding a site that is able to offer several types of betting. Where you find football bets, you also frequently find horse racing wagers, as the two are the most popular sports in the UK. Dating back centuries, horseracing has been one of the iconic landmarks of UK culture. And together with the races of course comes the horserace betting which has forever been one of the ways for the horseracing crowds and enthusiast to place bets on their favourite horse or jockey and become part of the great spectacle.

• A fine fourth of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy as was) in November was his most recent run, though that was 108 days ago.
• Acey Milan has plenty of experience and has shown smart speed for a bumper horse.
• On ratings she has a few pounds to find with some of these but her trainer is making optimistic noises (for whatever that is worth).
• In that spirit, I’ll take the Brits to beat the Irish, primarily through Jpr One and Master Chewy.
• Although horses that either finished 3rd LTO or 5th or worse have made a profit, this is down to big prices skewing the figures.
• These seasoned experts analyse horse form, course record, jockeys and trainer form, and offer a well-rounded view of the race.
• Just when I was anticipating diving into the Coral Cup or the Grand Annual, Matt presents me with the Champion Bumper!

LH – Thyme Hill form awful, the time was «glacial» 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe. Without rain, not sure he’ll enjoy downhill sections of the track. MT – Would love to own Hermes Allen, but wouldn’t run him in this race!

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FAMOUS CLERMONT is a tentative selection in a wide-open affair, following an effortless 18-length romp at Haydock. The winner of that contest in 2022 went on to follow up in the Albert Bartlett, as The Nice Guy improved hugely for the rise in distance at Cheltenham. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Seabank Bistro repeats the feat this time around and is worth a small each-way wager. The course which has produced the most winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ripon and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses. When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 122%.

Advised StakesTo see performance to the tipster’s recommended stakes, check the «Advised Stakes» checkbox. Our Bet Slip allows you to build up your selections before you begin placing multiple bets with your favourite bookmakers. Click the +BET button to add your selections and then, when you’re ready, hit ‘Bet Now’ to go to your chosen bookmaker’s site and place your bets. Belbek wins the Group 1 Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at ParisLongchamp. Granary at Hunt Court, CheltenhamCosy and chic, the Granary at Hunt Court offers an idyllic escape. Surrounded by peaceful farmland and scenery populated by abundant wildlife, this special spot makes for the ideal place to switch off and relax after a day discovering the chronicles of Cheltenham Festival.

He’s officially top rated in the line up, on 161, and this season has run 3rd in the Munster National, won the Troytown, been 2nd in the Becher Chase and bolted up in the PP Hogan Cross Country Chase at Punchestown. He stays well, jumps well and handles most ground; the only thing I don’t like about his profile is that it’s a very un-Gordon Elliott prep for the race! That said, Tiger Roll came to the race in good form when winning his second Glenfarclas in 2019, but it’s a weird niggle I can’t quite shake. That leaves Gentleman De Mee, perhaps the most likely pace angle. The second runner for Willie Mullins and a second for JP McManus, this lad beat Edwardstone in the Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) at Aintree two years ago and won the G1 Dublin Chase of 2023, too, so he’s got plenty of class.

• It includes all-weather, flat turf, hurdles and chases, UK and Ireland.
• LH – Thyme Hill form awful, the time was «glacial» 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe.
• The key here is that north of 1.00 is good, south of 1.00 not so much.
• Three years made small losses, two years quite big losses.
• Notably, the big guns – Chantry House, Champ – have run very well.
• He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.
• This gives us 15 years’ worth of data to crunch, which is plenty to get our teeth into.
• While the form of this season’s renewal has yet to be franked, Mystical Power bolted up by seven lengths and he is yet to be extended.

That fast finishing effort was six races ago, on a different track and under what is presumed to be a different tempo to today’s race. The bias is less extreme but the linearity remains, with front-runners still well favoured over prominent racers, and the later running styles about even behind those further forward. On firm ground, we see a similar leap from maiden on that terrain to those with one or two wins.

The UK runners did close the gap in 2022, after a dreadful 2021. Only time will tell, but you have to expect the Irish to come out on top overall once more. For many, the Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of not just the National Hunt season, but the whole racing year, writes Dave Renham. In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at South Kensington Holiday Inn, London Racing Club’s annual ‘best of breed’ Cheltenham Preview Evening unfurled.

But as a professional you do not have bets just for the sake of it. 2016 Cheltenham Champion bumper winner Ballyandy could well improve, but is very short in the market on hurdles form achieved. Essentially a 2m 6f horse who would have to make this his first ever win over 3m. At the 8/1 on offer worth considering a win only value bet. Beyond Conceit impressed when returning from a long absence on hurdles debut.